Retail Trends and Predictions for the U.S. Holiday Season | The Retail & Consumer Index

This content piece was written by G & Co. Team & CEO Juan Manuel Gonzalez. This is part of The Retail & Consumer Index Newsletter. Subscribe here.

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Hope you had a great Thanksgiving holiday! Only a few more weeks until a fresh, new year. And with it, some thoughts about the 2023 holiday season and what the consumer landscape and retail market looks like in 2024.

This week:

• Retail Predictions and Insights for the Upcoming Holiday Season in the US
• LVMH to Buy Eyewear Brand Favored by the Stars 
• Why Some Luxury Groups Are Doing Better Than Others

Retail Predictions and Insights for the Upcoming Holiday Season in the US 

Source: Business of Fashion

Our Take: 

The 4.5% rise in holiday season retail sales should inspire optimism among retail executives, despite last year's economic headwinds. eCommerce is particularly promising, with sectors like apparel and health products poised for growth.

Given the overstock bind from last season, business leaders should no doubt already have their social media strategies—and inventory—wrapped up with less tape than last year's inventory. 🎁✨

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Highlights: 

• Holiday retail sales growth looks to be promising this year, with eMarketer forecasting a 4.5% increase in 2023. Analysts project significant growth in ecommerce sectors like luxury furniture, high-end electronics, designer apparel, and premium health/beauty products.
• When it comes to discount strategies in retail, we can expect two-thirds of retailers preparing for consumers seeking deals; this strategy also helps in managing excess inventory, a trend observed among big-box retailers.
• Social media continues to heavily influence purchasing decisions, with the majority of US consumers, especially younger consumers, being inspired by platforms such as Instagram's Threads, which retailers are actively utilizing for brand promotion. 

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LVMH to Buy Eyewear Brand Favored by the Stars 

Source: The Wall Street Journal

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Our Take: 

LVMH expansion of its luxury portfolio through the acquisition of Barton Perreira indicates a significant move toward direct control in the lucrative luxury eyewear market. This acquisition, valued at around $80 million, signals a clear trend for luxury retail executives: premium brands are focusing on accessible high-end accessories to attract a wider consumer base.

This move is not just about vision; it's foresight with a touch of style, and for those in retail, missing this trend could be the biggest fashion faux pas of the season. 🕶📈

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Highlights: 

• LVMH has a new strategic acquisition with the agreement to purchase LA-based luxury eyewear brand Barton Perreira for approximately $80 million, aiming to bolster LVMH’s in-house eyewear operations and global presence, as it targets the expanding multi-billion luxury eyewear market. 
• The purchase aligns with LVMH's expansion strategy in luxury eyewear, as it seeks to attract aspirational luxury consumers through accessible items, planning expansion in Europe and Asia with new Barton Perreira standalone luxury stores. 
• The acquisition strengthens LVMH's control over quality and profits in its eyewear division, Thélios, which produces for elite, high-profile brands such as Dior and Fendi, reinforcing the luxury aesthetic from design to distribution. 

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Why Some Luxury Groups Are Doing Better Than Others 

Source: Business of Fashion

Our Take: 

In the dynamic luxury market, brands are experiencing a pronounced divergence. While Hermès thrives, leveraging its storied reputation and scarcity-driven demand, others like Kering grapple with the shifting landscape. Kering's challenge is to realign its offering to meet the demand for 'quiet luxury' while retaining its aspirational allure. The divergent results underscore the sector's volatility and the need for nimble strategies amongst luxury brands In this high-stakes fashion game, it seems not all players have the luxury of a winning hand. 🃏✨

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Highlights: 

• LVMH's slowed growth indicates a cooling post-pandemic luxury market; however, Hermès thrives with a 16% increase, while Kering faces a downturn with a 9% drop, signaling varied performances in the luxury market.
• Hermès succeeds in high-end retail by catering to less price-sensitive consumers with its iconic and ultra-recognizable offerings, capitalizing on consistent demand for luxury staples. Meanwhile, Kering's Gucci and Saint Laurent struggle to adapt to the demand for "quiet luxury" and economic pressures on aspirational buyers. 
• The luxury market's shift reflects varied consumer base impacts and necessitates brand adaptations; Hermès capitalizes on consistent demand for high-end staples, whereas Kering revamps to recapture interest with a more timeless, subtle approach.